Stock Notes

This page list stocks I’m interested/invested in and why.

AOB (American Oriental Biotech)
Chinese plant-based nutraceutical company. Read about on stock disussion group 6/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($11.90):
- bought this at 1.8 and sold at 1.92 in 7/2005; REGRET is one motivation for buying recently.
- sales/profit growth has been impressive though partially driven by acquisition
- PE of 31 (fwd 20)

ACY (AeroCentury)
Purchases and leases used smaller planes and engines. Saw on biggest gainers list 1/19/07.

Notes 2/19/07 ($15.65):
- just had great quarter ($0.35 earnings) – extrapolates to PE of about 11
- large runup recently; might be time to sell and wait for pullback

ALSWF (Absolute Software)
Offers LoJack for Laptops computer security and theft recovery service. Read about on discussion group 3Q/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($10.30):
- just had great quarter
- don’t show profit but this is because are subscription service so recognize rev as provide

AUY (Yamana Gold)
Gold/copper miner. Read about on stock discussion group 1Q/2006

Notes 2/19/07 ($14.25):
- impressive growth
- hedged most of 2007 copper production at 2.75/lb w/ call at 3.25
- subtracting copper credits, gold production price negative

BKC (Burger King)
Fast food restaurant. Interested after reading about private equity dividend payments.

Notes 2/19/07 ($22.61) (SHORT):
- see Shorting Private Equity IPOs
- just announced large secondary; expect more to come
- PE of 51 (fwd PE of 18)

EGLE (Eagle Bulk Shipping)
Dry bulk shipping company. Read about on discussion group 4Q/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($20.40):
- PE of 16
- div yield of 10% – just declared .51 for this quarter
- Baltic dry index at high levels

FF (First Financial Fund)
CEF investing in savings/banking institutions. First read about in 1993.

Notes 2/19/07 ($14.79):
- I’ve been meaning to buy this since 1993; a hint of REGRET
- they have had impressive returns since I’ve followed them

FFHL (Fuwei Film)
Chinese plastic films (BOPET) company. Read about on ipohome.com 12/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($11.60):
- impressive sales growth ($20mm to $27 in first 6 mo 2005, 2006)
- extrapolating from first 6 mo 2006 (.46) gives PE of 12.6
- have both domestic, international customers
- looking to replace expensive imports of high quality films
- I have no clue about competitive situation
- really don’t know much about this industry and company puts out very little press info so keeping it small; all info here from IPO prospectus

FXI (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund )
ETF tracking the FTSE/Xinhua Index of 25 leading Chinese companies. Read about on discussion group 3Q/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($106.90):
- China growth play

HBMFF (HudBay Minerals)
Miner mainly copper/zinc. Recommended by broker and read about on boards in c. 3Q/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($20.36):
- extrapolating from 9 mo 2006 C$3.38 earnings gives PE of 5.3 (C$/$ .859)
- forecast 2007 zinc prod up, copper almost double from 2006
- zinc LME stocks low (though stabilizing) – should keep zinc prices stable

JAGNF (Jaguar Mining)
Junior gold miner. Read recommendation on discussion board 3Q/2006

Notes 5/28/07

Looked at May 07 presentation again.  Growth story ok, but is 5 years out before production really gets going.

Notes 2/19/07 ($5.84):
- rosy predictions from a poster
- I gave a cursory looked and story seemed good — if memory serves
- should probably research a little more

JCG (J Crew Group)
Apparel manufacturer. Read about on ipohome.com 12/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($36.79) (SHORT):
- see Shorting Private Equity IPOs
- just did large secondary; expect more to come
- PE of 79 (fwd pe of 30)

JEQ (Japan Equity Fund)
CEF investing in Japan.

Notes 2/19/07 ($9.00):
- see Japan Turnaround note
-Q4/06 GDP and consumer spending strong.
- selling at 1.96 discount to NAV; if premium, switch to EWJ

JSC (Russell/Nomura Small Cap Japan ETF)
ETF investing in Japanese small caps. Found while looking for small-cap Japanese ETFs 1/2007.

Notes 2/19/07 ($53.66):
- see Japan Turnaround note
-Q4/06 GDP and consumer spending strong.

KF (Korea Fund)
CEF investing in Korea. Bought on poster recommendation 12/2006

Notes 2/19/07 ($34.82):
- should research this a little more or dump

LMC (Lundin Mining)
Copper/zinc miner. Read about Eurozinc mining (Lundin acquired) on discussion board 12/2005.

Notes 2/19/07 ($11.10):
- I got my LMC shares thru acquisition of EZM
- need to research; Yahoo reporting fwd PE of 4.34 (as well as 18.74B market cap) but think unreliable. A poster estimated a PE of around 11
- EZM was increasing production and LMC seems to be also
- lots of takeovers in mining sector

LMGGF (Lionore Mining)
Nickel miner. Read about on discussion board 2/2007.

Notes 2007/2/18 ($12.42):
- operations in West Australia, S. Africa, Botswana
- using a new technology which should increase production
- 3Q EPS of .68: extrapolating gives PE of 4.5

NFI (Novastar Financial)
Subprime mortgage lender. Read about in discussion group 12/2002.

Notes 2/21/07 ($10.10)
- just awful earnings; time to walk away from this one for a while

Notes 2/19/07 ($17.19):
- this company very hard to analyze but at current price worth a punt
- large dividends must be paid this year to maintain REIT status; converting to non-REIT or bankruptcy

NM (Navios Maritime)
Dry bulk shipping company. Noticed warrants on biggest gainers list 2/12/07.

Notes 2/19/07 ($6.99):
- PE of 11
- just did acquisition
- to list on NYSE
- 3.8% div yield
- Baltic dry index at high levels

NTO (Northern Orion Resources)
Copper/gold miner. Read about in discussion group 1/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($4.10):
- 3Q/06 earnings of .15
- looking to finance Agua Rica mine which they est. has NPV of $1.9B (not bad for a company with a market cap of $625M)
- their selling prices last 2Q have been above spot prices; not sure why since they don’t seem to be hedged

NTLRF (Neteller)
English money transfer company (like Paypal). Read about in discussion group 1/2007.

Notes 2/19/07 ($3.40):
- very thinly traded; hasn’t traded in a few weeks
- much of business with online gambling so have had trouble with US authorities
- Q3 EPS of .25
- cash/share of $1.75

NXG (Northgate Minerals)
Canadian gold/copper miner. Read about in discussion group 1/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($3.69):
- 3Q earnings of .07
- have some problems with the local native population
- hedged 33M lbs of 2007 copper production at $3.15
- developing several new properties

SLW (Silver Wheaton)
Silver miner. Recommended by broker and read about on discussion group 3Q/2006.

Notes 2/21/07 (10.88)
- 4Q/2006 EPS of $.10

Notes 2/19/07 (10.50):
- silver outlook

TDF (Templeton Dragon Fund)
CEF investing in Chinese companies.

Notes 2/19/07 ($25.09):
- 9% discount to NAV

TNH (Terra Nitrogen Company)
Fertilizer manufacturer. Read about in discussion group 4Q/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($48.00):
- should benefit from increased corn (from ethanol initiative)
- should benefit from lower natural gas prices (largest cost input)
- seeing low-cost foreign competition
- 4Q/06 EPS of .93, div/share of .97

UAHC (United American Healthcare)
Provides healthcare services to customers and HMOs. Read about in discussion group 4Q/2006.

Notes 2/19/07 ($6.23):
- bought on recommendation and probably should sell

XSI (American Caresource)
Provides non-physician ancillary services (such as physical therapy) to HMOs. Saw on biggest gainers list 12/22/06.

Notes 2/19/07 ($2.05):
- sales growing quickly and recently announced large contracts
- on the verge of profitability
- undiscovered, no analyst coverage
- no net debt