Behavioral Trader

Summary:
Gained 2.6% last week.  I spent most of the week selling, dumping OCNF, CNEH and the last of my AHR-C, trimming NRF, NRF-B, CMO, and RICK, and shorting more CRM, FAF, and TOL.  The only buy I made was covering the rest of my HOG short.

I guess you could say I think we’re heading down pretty soon.  I intend to buy back the CMO and NRF positions (RICK too at some point), but decided to take some profits and raise cash because I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet and prices will get better.  I don’t have any hard evidence of this, and certainly alot has been priced in, so I guess I’m relying on my trader’s instincts.  If only they had kicked in a little harder in September.

Positions:
Long:  ALSWF ANH CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF NRF-B RICK SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short:  Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 22.0%
Short Pct: 17.0%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 1.0; .
Tech: ??
China: ??; economy softening more than expected
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

Summary:
The gains don’t last as I fell 3.4%.  Did a bunch of swing trading mainly of NRF and CMO and sold some OCNF.  I added to my FAF short and sold short some TOL.  Those blew up in my face on Friday.  I also sold some Jun 5 NRF puts.

The market seems to have a little momentum.  Am I going too short?  I’m pretty comfortable with FAF, and TOL.  I may have to think about closing CRM.  I must also remember how quickly the optimism has faded in earlier “recoveries”.

Positions:
Long: AHR-C ALSWF ANH CNEH CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF NRF-B OCNF RICK SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOG MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5, Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 6.4%
Short Pct: 17.6%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: remains of AHR-C.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.
Mood: decent.

Summary:
Finally a little redemption after 2 hard weeks as I gained back 22.3%.

For the week I sold some ANH and SGTI as well as shorted IP and CRM.  I closed my FAF short and part of my HOG short.  I added a little CNEH.

Positions:
Long: AHR-C ALSWF ANH CNEH CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOG MEG MNI.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5, Jan 5.
Cash: 1.1%
Short Pct: 10.4%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: remains of AHR-C.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.
Mood: decent.

Summary:
Lost another 13%.  Mayhem continues.  For the week I added to NRF, NRF-B and SNEN, funding some of that with sales of AHR and AHR-C.  AHR is not nearly as well capitalized as NRF and could go under.  I also bought some RICK and OCNF.  Despite a tanking Baltic Dry Index, OCNF has much of its tankers locked in for this and next year.  The dividend yield is over 100%, though I assume the probability it gets cut is high.  I also shorted some FAF and sold NRF Jan 5 puts.

Positions:
Long: AHR-C ALSWF ANH CFC-B EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: FAF GAP GCI HOG MEG MNI.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5, Jan 5.
Cash: 2.4%
Short Pct: 6.3%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: remains of AHR-C.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.
Mood: a little discouraged.

Summary:
I got pounded for gained another 13% as the market plummeted again.  Still I was a little encouraged by a few of the swing trades I was able to pull off.  I finally dumped a bunch of ALSWF, MEOAF, MDNNF, and all my MLKKF for tax reasons, as well as I don’t think they will recover soon.  I sold some ANH and CNEH for tax reasons.  I added NRF, NRF-B (some of which I swung traded), and a tad of SGTI.  I covered my KBH and CRM shorts, but added to my HOG short.

Swing trading will remain key as I build my position in NRF, SNEN, etc.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: GAP GCI HOG MEG MNI.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5.
Cash: 8.8%
Short Pct: 5.1%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: everything and nothing: what more can happen.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.  The abs are working wonders.
Mood: ok.

Summary:
I gained another 8.5% as most things recovered. For the week I sold some NRF-B on its rise and some ANH and ALSWF for tax reasons.  I dumped QADMF much too late.  With metal prices in the dumper, I don’t think this will recover soon.  I got rid of EDD to get some CFC-B, which is supposed to became a BAC preferred.  If the terms remain the same, it sames to be at a big discount to BAC-X, which has the same yield.  I also picked up some SNEN, and shorted KBH, CRM, and HOG.  The latter has the same problems as the auto companies though maybe less severe.  But even less severe is probably enough in this market.

So how far the bounce.  I don’t know but will hold selectively a little longer.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EDD EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF SGTI SNEN XSI WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOG KBH MEG MNI.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5.
Cash: 4.3%
Short Pct: 7.7%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: everything and nothing: what more can happen.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.  The abs are working wonders.
Mood: good.

Summary:
Finally a little relief. I gained about 9% on a pretty broad-based recovery of most of my positions.

I added a bunch of CMO at at around 8.40 and 8 on Monday and Tuesday. I also added some SGTI, closed my PCLN and sold my NRF (having added more NRF-B last Friday). I sold some GREXF to take a tax loss, added some ALSWF and started a position in EDD. The latter is a closed-end emerging markets debt fund selling at a 23% discount and yielding 20%.  Its holding are in local currency so if you believe as I do that the US$ is looking high then this seems a good play.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EDD EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF SGTI SNEN XSI WHX.
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI PCLN.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5.
Cash: 3.0%
Short Pct: 3.6%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: everything and nothing: what more can happen.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: Mostly productive until Halloween (and birthday) preparations intervened.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.  The abs are working wonders.
Mood: good.