Summary:
Lost another 13%.  Mayhem continues.  For the week I added to NRF, NRF-B and SNEN, funding some of that with sales of AHR and AHR-C.  AHR is not nearly as well capitalized as NRF and could go under.  I also bought some RICK and OCNF.  Despite a tanking Baltic Dry Index, OCNF has much of its tankers locked in for this and next year.  The dividend yield is over 100%, though I assume the probability it gets cut is high.  I also shorted some FAF and sold NRF Jan 5 puts.

Positions:
Long: AHR-C ALSWF ANH CFC-B EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: FAF GAP GCI HOG MEG MNI.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5, Jan 5.
Cash: 2.4%
Short Pct: 6.3%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: remains of AHR-C.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.
Mood: a little discouraged.

Summary:
I got pounded for gained another 13% as the market plummeted again.  Still I was a little encouraged by a few of the swing trades I was able to pull off.  I finally dumped a bunch of ALSWF, MEOAF, MDNNF, and all my MLKKF for tax reasons, as well as I don’t think they will recover soon.  I sold some ANH and CNEH for tax reasons.  I added NRF, NRF-B (some of which I swung traded), and a tad of SGTI.  I covered my KBH and CRM shorts, but added to my HOG short.

Swing trading will remain key as I build my position in NRF, SNEN, etc.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: GAP GCI HOG MEG MNI.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5.
Cash: 8.8%
Short Pct: 5.1%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: everything and nothing: what more can happen.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.  The abs are working wonders.
Mood: ok.

Summary:
I gained another 8.5% as most things recovered. For the week I sold some NRF-B on its rise and some ANH and ALSWF for tax reasons.  I dumped QADMF much too late.  With metal prices in the dumper, I don’t think this will recover soon.  I got rid of EDD to get some CFC-B, which is supposed to became a BAC preferred.  If the terms remain the same, it sames to be at a big discount to BAC-X, which has the same yield.  I also picked up some SNEN, and shorted KBH, CRM, and HOG.  The latter has the same problems as the auto companies though maybe less severe.  But even less severe is probably enough in this market.

So how far the bounce.  I don’t know but will hold selectively a little longer.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EDD EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF SGTI SNEN XSI WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOG KBH MEG MNI.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5.
Cash: 4.3%
Short Pct: 7.7%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: everything and nothing: what more can happen.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.  The abs are working wonders.
Mood: good.

Summary:
Finally a little relief. I gained about 9% on a pretty broad-based recovery of most of my positions.

I added a bunch of CMO at at around 8.40 and 8 on Monday and Tuesday. I also added some SGTI, closed my PCLN and sold my NRF (having added more NRF-B last Friday). I sold some GREXF to take a tax loss, added some ALSWF and started a position in EDD. The latter is a closed-end emerging markets debt fund selling at a 23% discount and yielding 20%.  Its holding are in local currency so if you believe as I do that the US$ is looking high then this seems a good play.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EDD EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF SGTI SNEN XSI WHX.
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI PCLN.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5.
Cash: 3.0%
Short Pct: 3.6%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: everything and nothing: what more can happen.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: Mostly productive until Halloween (and birthday) preparations intervened.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.  The abs are working wonders.
Mood: good.

Summary:

Did well Monday and Tuesday and then things started to slip. Seems I lost about 3.3%

For the week I added yet more CMO and SNEN and some NRF-B on the premise I would sell the NRF put to me last week.  I have a sell order in for the NRF, but hasn’t been executed yet.  I dumped my remaining RICK since, as mentioned last time, I think will recover later than other things.  I sold some GREXF for tax reasons.  I also shorted some PCLN and bought some ALSWF and closed my TOL short.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF SGTI SNEN XSI WHX.
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI PCLN.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5.
Cash: 4.7%
Short Pct: 7.0%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: everything and nothing: what more can happen.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: back from Hawaii. Fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.  The abs are working wonders.
Mood: decent.

Summary:

Well the good news is I finished positive for the week, but by only a paltry 1.4%.  I suppose anything positive is good these days, but last Friday had me hoping for a bit more of a rebound.

For the week I added SNEN and CMO, while lightening on RICK since I think this will recover later than divy-rich government guaranteed things like CMO.  I swung-traded some AHR-C and sold OSUWF, some warrant I have been holding but seem to have forgotten to mention.  Lost almost everything on these but was a tiny position.  Chalk this one up to excitement-seeking.  I’ve been undisciplined on little issues like this though luckily keep the positions small.  I was also assign NRF and NLY from the #@%@# puts I sold.

I’m not optimistic short term though don’t think we can go that much lower than this.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF RICK SGTI SNEN XSI WHX
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5.
Cash: 0.7%
Short Pct: 5.1%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: everything and nothing: what more can happen.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: back from Hawaii. Fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: biking and abs.  The abs are working wonders.
Mood: decent.

Summary:

Wow.  I got absolutely POUNDED!  Yes I know everyone did, but all veneer of levitating above a falling market has been savagely ripped away.  Since not exactly where I was last week, don’t know exactly how much I lost but must have been 25-30%.  The real killer was ALSWF, which fell from 6.45 to 2.36.  Its 20% of its value only about a month ago.  It tanked on Friday, when everything else recovered on a diminished outlook.  SNEN, NRF-B, SGTI and AHR were not that far behind.

If I had been smart enough to carry  even 25-30% cash I would feel alot better about things, but I don’t have a huge amount of resources to take advantage of what I thing are huge values.  NRF-B yielding over 30%?  AHR and AHR-B trading as if bankrupt (no sign of this yet and have Blackrock backing)?  SNEN affirmed guidance on Friday of earnings of .90-1.00 and is selling at a 3 handle.  Obviously its possible these numbers don’t get hit, but with their expansion proceeding apace and China holding up, its a good bet.

Last years triumphs have really hurt me this year.  When Shanghai dropped 5% last February and markets started to tank, I immediately raised lots of cash.  Since then subsequent buying the dips opportunities left me complacent.  Even when one likes one’s positions, as I still do of most of my portfolio, there are times to cut across the board.  This is something hopefully I have learned for next time.

Next time is not now though.  I will be trading in and out, but I think we’re near bottom.  I think I can get at least 20-30% back before real danger.  High dividend yielders are especially attractive.  Provided they don’t go bankrupt, they should do very well when things calm down.  I think we’re in for more muck, but don’t think the world is ending.  Still, if anything explodes up, I’m out of it.  The one good think I think I managed to do was to dump ANCI.  I still like the company’s prospects, but its valuation is well above where it should be in this market.

For the week, I got completely out of ANCI and sold some QADMF.  I added CMO, NRF-B, and SNEN, closed my CRM short and trimmed my TOL short.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF RICK SGTI SNEN XSI WHX
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NLY Oct 17.5, 16; NRF Oct 7.5, Dec 7.5.
Cash: 7.6%
Short Pct: 6.2%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: everything and nothing: what more can happen.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: up, 2.0; strong economy and has fallen alot.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: was on vacation in sunny Hawaii.
Weekly sleep and exercise: swimming and biking.  Sleep ok.
Mood: holding up alot better than my portfolio, but more than a little frazzled

Summary:

Got pounded again.  Not sure since didn’t note down but probably 20%?  Near the end of my gains from the last two year.  ALSWF is just tanking but so is everything else.  Where does this end?  SGTI reported 4Q EPS of .16/share and annual of .52, on an under $3 stock.  Would seem a screaming buy in normal times.

I sold more ANCI (formerly XSI), some QADMF, shorted CRM and added some NRF-B.  Can’t believe the yields here.

Are we out of the soup?  Probably not

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF NRF-B QADMF RICK SGTI SNEN XSI WHX
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NLY Oct 17.5, 16; NRF Oct 7.5, Dec 7.5.
Cash: ??%
Short Pct: ??%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: MLKKF, QADMF: though copper may be stabilizing.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: more LEH.
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; still not out of the soup.
Tech: ??
China: up, 2.0; strong economy and has fallen alot.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: somewhat productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: some soccer.  Sleep ok.
Mood: decent

Summary:

Should have taken last week’s warning and lightened up.  Didn’t and got pounded for 9% drop.  This has to stop somewhere but where.

For the week I swapped out of NRF to NRF-B and from most of my AHR to AHR-C.  Both of the preferreds, despite being higher in the capital structure, were yielding more than the common.  No brainer.

Tough times ahead.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF RICK SGTI SNEN XSI WHX
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NLY Oct 17.5, 16; NRF Oct 7.5, Dec 7.5.
Cash: ??%
Short Pct: ??%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: MLKKF, QADMF: though copper may be stabilizing.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: more LEH.
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: down, 2.0; still not out of the soup.
Tech: ??
China: ??; strong economy and has fallen alot, but not good markets
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: less boxing as having arm pain, some soccer.  Sleep ok.
Mood:decent

Summary:
And I thought last week was a roller-coaster week.  This week by midday Thursday I was down about 12%.  Then the bailout cavalry came riding to the rescue and I ended down a mere 1.6%.

I made a bunch of trades on Tuesday.  I bought more SNEN and CNEH after they released FY08 annual EPS estimates of .62 (for a stock at 2.30!).  I added some NRF-B at what I considered the ridiculously cheap price of 10.35s.  Later I added more at the even cheaper price of 9.80.  Also Tuesday I sold some MLKKF and closed my KBH sort.  This looked really silly Thursday morning and really smart Thursday evening.  Other trades included adding some CMO and selling some RICK (to buy NRF-B).  Finally I sold some NRF December 7.5 puts on Friday before the stock started to run up.

What’s to come?  No clue.  I’m not sure the specific measures of the bailout will accomplish what are intended and as a free-market economist I have serious reservations about this level of government intervention.  On the other hand, maybe it will help restore needed confidence short-term which may prevent an unnecessary collapse.  Though maybe a collapse is necessary.  In any event, vigilance is still necessary and while I won’t be abandoning any of my core positions while they continue to perform, I will be raising more cash.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF NRF-B QADMF RICK SGTI SNEN XSI WHX
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NLY Oct 17.5, 16; NRF Oct 7.5, Dec 7.5.
Cash: 4.3%
Short Pct: 5.4%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: MLKKF, QADMF: though copper may be stabilizing.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: more LEH.
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; still not out of the soup.
Tech: ??
China: up, 2.0; strong economy and has fallen alot.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: lots of boxing and soccer.  Sleep ok.
Mood: good