Behavioral Trader

wpp

behavioral — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:18:24 +0000

unprofitable

lots of debt

bad business to be in

not shortable but calls available

Week Ending 1-23-09

behavioral — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 14:31:22 +0000

Summary:
Was happy to break even in auguration week despite the averages being lower. Bought a tad of NRF-B and some ONAV and closed my LEN short, while selling NRF. I think we are still going down some more, but don’t get a strong sense.

Positions:
Long: ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF ONAV NRF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOT MEG TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: SHLD Feb 45.
Puts Short: NRF Jun 5.
Cash: 42.0%
Short Pct: 17.7% (24.3% of margin acct)
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit and no guidance.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 1.0; .
Tech: ??
China: ??; economy softening more than expected
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app.
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

Week Ending 1-16-09

behavioral — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 14:25:07 +0000

Summary:
Lost 2.0%, breaking a string of 5 weekly gains. I dumped more NRF-B and CMO, and some ONAV, was assigned some NRF, and sold the Feb 45 SHLD call. I expect a correction. Cash is up to 40%.

Positions:
Long: ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF ONAV NRF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOT LEN MEG TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: SHLD Feb 45.
Puts Short: NRF Jun 5.
Cash: 34.3%
Short Pct: 20.0% (28.0% of margin acct)
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit and no guidance.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app.
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

Week Ending 1-9-2009

behavioral — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 14:17:21 +0000

Summary:
Gained another 4.6% last week as financial such as NRF and CMO gained and my shorts performed well too. I sold into strength dumping a bunch of NRF, and some NRF-B SGTI and SNEN. I finally got out of the CFC-B for a small profit. The poster’s convergence theory (to BAC-X as this is now a BAC obligation with the same yield as BAC-X) did not pan out. I also shorted some LEN and added to ONAV.

Positions:
Long: ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF ONAV NRF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOT LEN MEG TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 34.3%
Short Pct: 21.4% (29.9% of margin acct)
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit and no guidance.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

Week Ending 1-3-08

behavioral — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 14:04:38 +0000

Summary:
Gained 4.1% last week. I lightened SNEN, CMO, and NRF-B. I hope to swing trade the latter two. I was in and out of GKK-A, which hit my stink bid when announcing the dividend would no longer be paid. I sold as my purpose was the dividend. I started a position in ONAV, an (oil) products tanker company. The company has charters for most of this and next year, a 30% dividend yield and Jeffries came out with a bullish report expecting them to triple. That said, the products market is a mess right now. While the policy is to pay the current fixed dividend, things could change if charters come unstuck.

Positions:
Long: ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF ONAV NRF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP HOT GCI MEG TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 27.0%
Short Pct: 19.9% (27.5% of margin acct)
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit and no guidance.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 1.0; .
Tech: ??
China: ??; economy softening more than expected
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

Week Ending 12-26-08

behavioral — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 13:50:21 +0000

Summary:
Gained 1.4% in last full week of the year. SNEN reported earnings above expectations, but most was from a one-time gain. Besides that they were inline, but there was no reaffirmation of guidance like in October. IR said they’ve decided not to issue guidance anymore which I find worrisome. I’ll be cutting back and trying to get more info.

For the week I sold some SNEN and opened a short in Starwood (HOT), the hotel company, which has mountains of debt and falling profitability.

Positions:
Long: ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF NRF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP HOT GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 24.6%
Short Pct: 21.8%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

Week Ending 12/19/08

behavioral — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 20:32:53 +0000

Summary:
Managed a 1.8% gain last week. It would have been more but I have been raising cash and my short position in anticipation of another dip. It didn’t come this week, and I don’t know if it will come this week, but I think it will come. When it does, I will reload more NRF-B, CMO and others I sold last week.

For this week I reduced NRF, swing traded CMO for a small gain, added to TOL and FAF shorts, and picked up some AGNC. The latter is an agency MREIT which declared a divy of $1.20 and is yielding (based on that amount) 24%. The divy may go higher and AGNC’s funding costs drop.

Positions:
Long: ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF NRF NRF-B RICK SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 23.4%
Short Pct: 20.5%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 1.0; .
Tech: ??
China: ??; economy softening more than expected
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

Week Ending 12/12/08

behavioral — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 03:36:54 +0000

Summary:
Gained 2.6% last week. I spent most of the week selling, dumping OCNF, CNEH and the last of my AHR-C, trimming NRF, NRF-B, CMO, and RICK, and shorting more CRM, FAF, and TOL. The only buy I made was covering the rest of my HOG short.

I guess you could say I think we’re heading down pretty soon. I intend to buy back the CMO and NRF positions (RICK too at some point), but decided to take some profits and raise cash because I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet and prices will get better. I don’t have any hard evidence of this, and certainly alot has been priced in, so I guess I’m relying on my trader’s instincts. If only they had kicked in a little harder in September.

Positions:
Long: ALSWF ANH CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF NRF-B RICK SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 22.0%
Short Pct: 17.0%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

Week Ending 12/5/08

behavioral — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 23:57:07 +0000

Summary:
The gains don’t last as I fell 3.4%. Did a bunch of swing trading mainly of NRF and CMO and sold some OCNF. I added to my FAF short and sold short some TOL. Those blew up in my face on Friday. I also sold some Jun 5 NRF puts.

The market seems to have a little momentum. Am I going too short? I’m pretty comfortable with FAF, and TOL. I may have to think about closing CRM. I must also remember how quickly the optimism has faded in earlier “recoveries”.

Positions:
Long: AHR-C ALSWF ANH CNEH CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF NRF-B OCNF RICK SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOG MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5, Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 6.4%
Short Pct: 17.6%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: remains of AHR-C.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.
Mood: decent.

Week Ending 11-28-08

behavioral — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 23:43:12 +0000

Summary:
Finally a little redemption after 2 hard weeks as I gained back 22.3%.

For the week I sold some ANH and SGTI as well as shorted IP and CRM. I closed my FAF short and part of my HOG short. I added a little CNEH.

Positions:
Long: AHR-C ALSWF ANH CNEH CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOG MEG MNI.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5, Jan 5.
Cash: 1.1%
Short Pct: 10.4%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: remains of AHR-C.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market .
Thinking about:

Real life: productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.
Mood: decent.