Week Ending 12/5/08

Summary:
The gains don’t last as I fell 3.4%.  Did a bunch of swing trading mainly of NRF and CMO and sold some OCNF.  I added to my FAF short and sold short some TOL.  Those blew up in my face on Friday.  I also sold some Jun 5 NRF puts.

The market seems to have a little momentum.  Am I going too short?  I’m pretty comfortable with FAF, and TOL.  I may have to think about closing CRM.  I must also remember how quickly the optimism has faded in earlier “recoveries”.

Positions:
Long: AHR-C ALSWF ANH CNEH CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF NRF-B OCNF RICK SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOG MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5, Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 6.4%
Short Pct: 17.6%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: remains of AHR-C.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market :-) .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.
Mood: decent.

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