Week Ending 10/31/08

Summary:
Finally a little relief. I gained about 9% on a pretty broad-based recovery of most of my positions.

I added a bunch of CMO at at around 8.40 and 8 on Monday and Tuesday. I also added some SGTI, closed my PCLN and sold my NRF (having added more NRF-B last Friday). I sold some GREXF to take a tax loss, added some ALSWF and started a position in EDD. The latter is a closed-end emerging markets debt fund selling at a 23% discount and yielding 20%.  Its holding are in local currency so if you believe as I do that the US$ is looking high then this seems a good play.

Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EDD EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF-B QADMF SGTI SNEN XSI WHX.
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI PCLN.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Dec 7.5.
Cash: 3.0%
Short Pct: 3.6%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: everything and nothing: what more can happen.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market :-) .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; dead cat bounce at the least and lots of intervention.
Tech: ??
China: ??; softening economy priced in?
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: Mostly productive until Halloween (and birthday) preparations intervened.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer and abs.  The abs are working wonders.
Mood: good.

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