Summary:
And I thought last week was a roller-coaster week. This week by midday Thursday I was down about 12%. Then the bailout cavalry came riding to the rescue and I ended down a mere 1.6%.
I made a bunch of trades on Tuesday. I bought more SNEN and CNEH after they released FY08 annual EPS estimates of .62 (for a stock at 2.30!). I added some NRF-B at what I considered the ridiculously cheap price of 10.35s. Later I added more at the even cheaper price of 9.80. Also Tuesday I sold some MLKKF and closed my KBH sort. This looked really silly Thursday morning and really smart Thursday evening. Other trades included adding some CMO and selling some RICK (to buy NRF-B). Finally I sold some NRF December 7.5 puts on Friday before the stock started to run up.
What’s to come? No clue. I’m not sure the specific measures of the bailout will accomplish what are intended and as a free-market economist I have serious reservations about this level of government intervention. On the other hand, maybe it will help restore needed confidence short-term which may prevent an unnecessary collapse. Though maybe a collapse is necessary. In any event, vigilance is still necessary and while I won’t be abandoning any of my core positions while they continue to perform, I will be raising more cash.
Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF NRF-B QADMF RICK SGTI SNEN XSI WHX
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NLY Oct 17.5, 16; NRF Oct 7.5, Dec 7.5.
Cash: 4.3%
Short Pct: 5.4%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: MLKKF, QADMF: though copper may be stabilizing.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: more LEH.
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; still not out of the soup.
Tech: ??
China: up, 2.0; strong economy and has fallen alot.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.
Real life: fairly productive.
Weekly sleep and exercise: lots of boxing and soccer. Sleep ok.
Mood: good
