Summary:
Losses continue. Another 1.5% down the drain. It would have been alot worse if not for XSI, which announced earnings of .04 and gave a very bright outlook at the earnings call.
There were a bunch of other earning reports. RICK announced and though they cut their outlook, the stock still rose a bit on Friday, though was down for the week. They now expect 2009 earnings of $2.00-2.20 which still gives a forward PE of only 7 for a compelling growth story — if the outlook doesn’t get cut again. QADMF reported EPS of $1.10. At this clip, their PE is less than 5. Production should continue to grow, but falling copper prices will hurt them. MLKKF swung to a loss on higher (investment) spending, but seem to be making progress on their mine operations. I’ve cut back a little and will probably cut back more.
Citigroup issued a report on NRF which projects a dividend cut to .25 from .36. They also expect some credit deterioration though NRF currently has no non-accruals. I can’t really evaluate whether they are right, but the market didn’t take kindly to the report. Add NRF to the list of stocks I’ll cut back on strength.
For the week I added more RICK before earnings, then swing traded part of my purchase. In addition I closed out my KBH short, sold a little XSI after it exploded upwards, and got assigned my August CMO puts.
I’m still holding in there, but the losses are worrisome. I’ll be selling on strength.
Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NRF QADMF RICK SGTI SNEN XSI WHX
Short: GAP GCI MEG MNI.
Calls Long: ANH Jan 7.5; CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NLY Oct 17.5, 16; NRF Sep 7.5.
Cash: -0.2%
Short Pct: 4.4%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: .
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: another financial blowup.
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; still not out of the soup.
Tech: ??
China: up, 2.0; strong economy and has fallen alot.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.
Real life: getting more accomplished.
Weekly sleep and exercise: lots of soccer and resumed boxing training. Sleep decent.
Mood: decent
