Summary:
What a difference a week makes! Finally broke my 5-week losing streak and the 4.2% gain this week made up for 3 lost weeks. This was my longest losing streak since last July/August, but I was down alot less this time — about 10% vs. 16% last year. Still it is always harrowing to feel stuck in the mud, and in contrast to last year when I was giving back part of the large gains from earlier in the year, this streak started in the red and kept getting worse.
While there were a few hiccups, for the most part my positions have reported very good news. SINE upped its earning guidance. XSI reported adding new contracts. GAP, one of my shorts, continues to bleed money and dropped over 20% on Friday. The big hiccup was IStar, which reported terrible earnings because of writedowns. I probably should have dumped this one.
Trades this week including adding to SINE, AHR, and some SFI before the fall. I also bought some AHR-C as it began to rise on Tuesday. I sold my GA and CNEH. I will probably buy back the second but felt the need for liquidity. I also trimmed MLKKF and covered part of my KBH and TOL positions. On Friday I was assigned NLY, CMO and MFA from those disastrous put sales I executed in February. I will sell those positions on Monday.
So onward and upward next week? My sense is that this rally will last a little longer, but I will probably be trimming on strength.
Positions:
Long: AHR AHR-C ALSWF ANH EPMWF GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NLY NRF QADMF RICK SFI SGTI SINE XSI WHX
Short: GAP GCI KBH MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: ANH Jan 7.5; CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: CMO Aug 12.5; NLY Oct 17.5, 16; NRF Sep 7.5.
Cash: -2.4%
Short Pct: 4.9%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: .
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: in remission for now.
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; still not out of the soup.
Tech: ??
China: up, 2.0; strong economy and has fallen alot, looks like turning around.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows? has risen alot.
Copper: flat-up, 2.0. China demand.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: flailing away at projects.
Weekly sleep and exercise: lots of soccer and biking. Sleep decent.
Mood: good
