Summary:
Very up and down week ended with the same result, down 1.4%. I am losing my optimism, but don’t know what to do about it. I should probably raise a fair amount of cash, but feel seduced by the compelling fundamentals in companies like ALSWF, SNEN, XSI, NRF, AHR and RICK. Valuation, growth, they are all there. I remember reading back in 2002 that in real bear markets P/Es often go to 10 or single digits. I lost alot of money in October 2002 shorting on the notion of that final bear blowoff. That it turned out was the beginning of the bull market which lasted till last October. Perhaps the real bear has finally come. And perhaps I should sell more.
I did do a little selling of XSI, MDNNF, CNEH, and the last of my CHNG. I also closed my PCLN short. I added some AHR as it rallied Thursday and then saw it fall with everything else on Friday.
Positions:
Long: AHR ALSWF ANH CNEH EPMWF GA GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF NLY NRF QADMF RICK SFI SGTI SNEN XSI WHX
Short: GAP GCI KBH MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: ANH Jan 7.5; CMO Nov 12.5.
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: ANH Jul 10; CMO Jun 12.5, Jul 12.5, Aug 12.5; KBH July 15; MFA Jul 10; NLY Jul 20, Oct 17.5; Oct 16.
Cash: 2.2%
Short Pct: 6.5%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: .
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: general.
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; still not out of the soup.
Tech: ??
China: down, 1.0; strong economy and has fallen alot, but this mkt sucks.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows? has risen alot.
Copper: flat-up, 2.0. China demand.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: flailing away at projects.
Weekly sleep and exercise: lots of soccer and biking. Sleep decent.
Mood: decent but market woes beginning to wear
