Summary:
Gained about 1% this week. ACY rebounded though since I sold a bunch near the low, my participation was limited. My selling was fact-based (the hit to 1Q earnings mentioned in the 10-Q), but perhaps a bit premature. Hard to tell.
This week had lots of earnings news. ALSWF reported near expectations. I was pleased with the report but the initial market reaction was negative and it closed the week down a tad. CMO, NLY and MFA also reported. The first two rose after reporting though NLY fell back later in the week. With spread increasing, agency mortgage REITs seem to be in the sweet spot and should report rising earnings and dividends the next few quarters. I am thinking of increasing my holding but will have to sell something. Perhaps a little ALSWF? I think this will explode up at some point, but not necessarily tomorrow. I might reduce some SNEN after a run-up, but not right now. Some of the gold juniors could also go to the block but are down alot even though they are further along relative to when I bought them.
Only a few trades this week. I bought a smidgen of ALSWF near its post-earnings low. An existing AHR sell order got hit and I sold some NRF before ex-date after looking at its chart (yes I do that some times). I used the cash to purchase more CMO.
Despite the relatively sedate end, it was a up and down week. I am still sanguine about all my positions with the exception of ACY, but am getting a little impatient as my returns are not matching my optimism.
Positions:
Long: ACY AHR ALSWF ANH CHNG EPMWF GA GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF MMG NLY NRF QADMF SGTI SNEN XSI.
Short: GCI KBH MEG MNI TOL.
Options Long:
Calls Short: NRF Jun 12.5.
Puts Short: AHR May 5; ANH Jul 10; CMO Jun 12.5, Aug 12.5; MFA Jul 10; NLY Jul 20, Oct 17.5 NRF Jun 7.5, Oct 7.5.
Cash: 4.5%
Short Pct: 10.0%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: ACY – repair costs, airline customer woes.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: not feeling worried even though there’s probably more unexpected financial writedowns out there.
Thinking about: adding agency mortgage REITs
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; still not out of the soup.
Tech: ??
China: up, 3.0; strong economy and has fallen alot.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows? has risen alot.
Copper: flat-up, 2.0. China demand.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: again pretty productive week but must step up even more on website .
Weekly sleep and exercise: biking to school and soccer on Sunday. Sleep ok but need more.
Mood: good
