Summary:
I gained a respectable 3.4% this week as my financial holdings began to perk up. One position which bucked the trend was ACY, which reported in its 10-K that it will have large maintenance costs in Q1 2008. This combined with airline turmoil and seeming problems turning over jets have made me cautious. I am looking for an opportunity to close out the position.
Since last week I have been trying to concentrate on core holdings. To that effect I said goodbye to FFHL and DSSPF. The former had disappointing earnings and was a big disappointment in general. I bought it originally because of a very low P/E ratio which didn’t take into account a recent share offering. Afterwards the P/E was still lowish but not nearly as compelling — I should have sold on recognition but instead followed the stock down. This might be a story sometime but not now. DSSPF is probably a good company, but its in Norway and I hear there were problems receiving their last dividend at Fidelity.
I added to SNEN, CMO, AHR, and XSI. I also closed out a short in LEN and trimmed my KBH. I had had orders in which I placed when opening the positions. I find this technique often works well. Finally, I sold some NRF September 7.5 puts. The stock has held up and I expect it to continue to do so.
If recent history is a guide, this week being an up week means next week will be a down week. However, I feel cautiously optimistic that this week’s gains will continue.
Positions:
Long: ACY AHR ALSWF ANH CHNG EPMWF GA GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF MMG NLY NRF ONAV QADMF SGTI SNEN XSI.
Short: GCI KBH MEG MNI TOL.
Options Long:
Calls Short: NRF Jun 12.5.
Puts Short: NRF Jun 7.5, Oct 7.5; AHR Mar 5; ANH Jul 10; MFA Jul 10; NLY Jul 20, Oct 17.5.
Cash: 3.2%
Short Pct: 10.0%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: ACY – repair costs, airline customer woes.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the next Bear Stearns.
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; credit woes.
Tech: ??
Japan: not invested – don’t care anymore.
China: up, 3.0; strong economy.
Silver: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-up, 2.0. China demand.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: getting back into the swing of school. Busy social life.
Weekly sleep and exercise: biking and soccer. Sleep ok but not enough.
Mood: decent
