Summary:
The market giveth and the market taketh away. This week it was the latter as I lost about 4.8%, a little less than I gained last week. Most of this was attributable to ALSWF, which continues its churn despite favorable fundamentals. I was looking back at MSFT’s early history and it too had a period from May 1987 to October 1989 where it traded in a range. While I don’t think ALSWF is the next MSFT (its products aren’t nearly as central as operating systems and applications were then), it seems even great stocks can go sideways for a while. This in itself is no reason to lose faith.
Despite the losses this week, I feel I made some good trades. I trimmed NRF at an average price of around 9.4 and sold short some LEN at 20.34. I also trimmed MMG, ONAV and DSSPF. Some of the selling was to raise money for taxes, but I’m closing out the DSSPF and probably ONAV too because I think my main positions are better bets and want to add. To this effect, I picked up some more GREXF and SNEN. I will be adding more to others after taxes are paid and I know my cash situation better. I’m in no rush because I think its more than an even bet that prices go even lower.
Positions:
Long: ACY AHR ALSWF ANH CHNG DSSPF EPMWF FFHL GA GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF MMG NLY NRF ONAV QADMF SGTI SNEN XSI.
Short: GCI KBH MEG MNI TOL WM.
Options Long:
Calls Short: NRF Jun 12.5; KBH Apr 35.
Puts Short: NRF Jun 7.5; KBH Apr 15; ANH Jul 10; MFA Jul 10; NLY Jul 20, Oct 17.5.
Cash: 9.0%
Short Pct: 12.0%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: feeling sanguine.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the next Bear Stearns
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; credit woes.
Tech: ??
Japan: not invested – don’t care anymore.
China: up, 3.0; strong economy.
Silver: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. China, but stocks rising.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: getting back into the swing of school. Busy social life.
Weekly sleep and exercise: biking and soccer. Sleep ok but not enough.
Mood: decent
