Summary:
Gained about 1.2% in an up and down week. NRF was the star, rising about a dollar after reporting solid results on Thursday (though it gave back a little on Friday). ACY also rose on strong earnings. MLKKF ran up on Thursday without news. My housing shorts made an abortive run up before retreating late in the week. ALSWF fell for a second straight week following its earnings release runup. The price action and rumors of competition have me a little worried though I added some on Friday.
In addition to ALSWF, I added some ACY. I sold NLY on speculation its reaching full value. I sold short LEN on Thursday after housing seemed to be reversing. I also sold an ONAV 15 call. I was thinking of selling the position, but decided I’d take the premium and let it get called away if it rises. Finally, I bought and sold Frontera Copper (FRCPF). It tanked after reporting its having trouble getting sulfuric acid it needs for its mining operation. I had a stink bid in which got hit on Monday. I decided on Tuesday that I didn’t want the risk and sold.
Market neurosis continues. It seems we get some more bad credit news and the market falls a little then decides further bad news is baked into prices, then decides maybe it isn’t. Expect more see-saws.
Positions:
Long: ACY AHR ALSWF ANH CHNG DSSPF EPMWF FFHL GA GREXF MDNNF MEAOF MLKKF MMG NLY NRF OCNF ONAV QADMF QMAR SGTI SNEN XSI.
Short: GCI KBH LEN MEG MNI PHM TOL WM.
Options Long:
Calls Short: NRF Jun 12.5; KBH Apr 35; ONAV Mar 15 .
Puts Short: NRF Mar 7.5, Jun 7.5; KBH Apr 15; ANH Jul 10; WM Mar 12; MFA Jul 10.
Cash: 6.5%
Short Pct: 12.6%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: ALSWF (despite great results what if I’m worng).
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: recession spreading beyond US
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; credit woes.
Tech: ??
Japan: not invested – don’t care anymore.
China: up, 3.0; strong economy.
Silver: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. China, but stocks rising.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: working on projects and busy social life.
Weekly sleep and exercise: have been having some heel pain, probably planar fascitis so been biking but no soccer or boxing. Sleep fairly regular.
Mood: calm, good
