Summary:
Had a fourth straight positive week – up about 2.5%. This leaves me down about 2% for the year, but much better than the -20% in mid-January. ALSWF led the way again — perhaps a combination of last week’s blowout earnings and also a mostly favorable ruling on some patent litigation they are involved in. This latter is the only credible threat to ALSWF’s continued rise in the short to medium term. I firmly believe this stock will double over the year and could triple or quadruple in the next two years. We shall see. Also rising was OCNF, which reported good earnings and a dividend increase. I got lucky, adding while blissfully unaware it was announcement day. I wanted more exposure to the dry bulk and OCNF has one of the highest yields in the sector. Also notable were my home builder and financial shorts, which though about even for the week, seem headed lower. Also SNEN reported good results on Friday and rose 5.5%. SGTI’s results were good too, but the stock only rose 1.6%
During the week I added yet more ALSWF, OCNF, and bought back some AHR. To fund this I dumped NFYIF and some DHT. I also sold MFA on mediocre results, and sold short PHM. Like last week, I sold a bunch of puts on NRF, ANH, NLY, and AHR. I feel pretty confident the premiums will be free money.
My outlook hasn’t changed — choppiness as we work our way through credit woes and recession fears.
Positions:
Long: ACY AHR ALSWF ANH CHNG DHT DSSPF FFHL GA GREXF MDNNF MLKKF MMG NLY NRF OCNF ONAV QADMF QMAR SGTI SNEN XSI.
Short: GCI KBH LEN MEG MNI PHM TOL WM.
Options Long:
Calls Short: NRF Jun 12.5 calls; KBH Apr 35 calls.
Puts Short: NRF Mar 7.5, Jun 7.5; KBH Apr 15; ANH Jul 10; WM Mar 12; MFA Jul 10.
Cash: 4.0
Short Pct: 12.7
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: .
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: credit contagion fear-induced meltdown
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; credit woes.
Tech: ??
Japan: not invested – don’t care anymore.
China: up, 3.0; strong economy.
Silver: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. China, but stocks rising.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: working on projects and busy social life.
Weekly sleep and exercise: have been having some heel pain, probably planar fascitis so been biking but no soccer or boxing. Sleep fairly regular.
Mood: calm, good
