Summary:
My portfolio rose more than 2% for my second straight positive week. Finally a positive week: my portfolio rose almost 3%. I was down 11.6% in January, slightly worse than November and one of my worst months in the last few years.
I added a fair amount of ALSWF this week. As the price gets cheaper, I like the growth story and valuation more and more. It is back up to 20% of my portfolio. I sold some NRF into strength but its still 14% of my portfolio. I sold some Mar 7.5 NRF puts and 12.5 June calls. I’d be happy to buy or sell NRF at those levels so why not collect the premiums. I bought more SGTI, which suffered from reports of Chinese corn restrictions which shouldn’t affect them. I bought some OCNF and QMAR, the latter because it is below the price EXM will pay for them and dry bulkers are perking up. I sold some ONAV and AHR into strength. I also added to my ANH and CHNG positions and my KBH short.
Do we recover more from here? I still don’t have a strong sense like in August. Financials seem to be recovering as have homebuilders. I’m betting we get another leg down in these sectors, though am sanguine about my commercial and mortgage REITs. ALSWF reports on February 7th which should make or break my week. Good results won’t necessarily mean a bounce, though, since their accounting causes net to look worse the better they do as described here.
Positions:
Long: ALSWF ANH FFHL GA GREXF MDNNF MLKKF MMG NRF ONAV QADMF SNEN XSI NFIYF SGTI MFA GDOCF AHR NLY OCNF QMAR.
Short: GCI KBH MEG MNI TOL.
Options Long:
Options Short: NRF Mar 7.5 puts, NRF Jun 12.5 calls.
Cash: 1.5
Short Pct: 11.3
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: .
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: credit contagion fear-induced meltdown
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; credit woes.
Tech: ??
Japan: not invested – don’t care anymore.
China: up, 3.0; strong economy.
Silver: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. China, but stocks rising.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: working on projects
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer. sleep ok.
Mood: calm, good
