Weekly Wrap 1/14 – 1/18/08

Summary:
After a good Monday, it was a miserable week in which I dropped 6.5%.  Just about everything fell with ALSWF leading the way.  NRF and AHR also got hit as a big commercial real estate default fueled speculation that commercial will follow residential into the toilet.

I was regretting not having much cash at the beginning of the week and got rid of some CMO-B to make room for more ALSWF, GREXF, ONAV, SNEN and CHNG.  Fear and greed contended later in the week when I added some NRF at 7.54 and 7.67 and closed most of it the next day at 7.72 along with JRT.  I also dumped a little ACY to raise more more.  Finally I closed my long BQI calls for a small profit as the lower strike price calls I had sold expired worthless.

The market made a slight comeback Friday which I believe bodes well for next week.

Positions:
Long: ALSWF ANH ANH-A CMO-B DRYS FFHL GA GREXF MDNNF MLKKF MMG NRF ONAV QADMF SNEN XSI NFIYF SGTI MFA GDOCF AHR
Short: GCI KBH MEG MNI TOL WM.
Options:
Cash: 2.8
Short Pct: 8.2
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: .
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: credit induced market downturn
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; credit woes.
Tech: ??
Japan: not invested – don’t care anymore.
China: up, 3.0; strong economy.
Silver: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. China, but stocks rising.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.

Real life: working on projects
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer. sleep ok.
Mood: calm, good

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