Summary:
Pretty much broke even for the week. I did a couple of swing trades in NRF and MBI for small profits. I added some SNEN and DHT and opened a position in ACY and SGTI, which reported great earnings recently. I wanted to buy ACY earlier, but glad I waited until it dropped from its earnings pop. In some markets, speed is essential, but in a churning to down market like this, patience can get you better prices. On SGTI I chased though bought a little less than my original order. I’ll add if if drops though probably should have waited. SGTI, or Shengtai Pharmaceuticals, is a small Chinese glucose maker. Like many of the other China plays I’ve bought, the growth is heady and the valuation reasonable. There is always the fear that the growth doesn’t last or competitors pile in and the rosy predictions fall short. On the other hand Chinese economic growth seems real and perhaps there is more room for everyone. I also like to think that a US listing indicates some level of advantage (either connections, competence or outlook) over domestic rivals in a market still not fully exposed to foreign competition. But I don’t really have hard evidence to back these assumptions up in specific actionable ways. So I look at the numbers and buy smallish stakes where they look good. That worked with CHNG, didn’t with FFHL, and the jury’s still out on SNEN.
My outlook is the same as last week: very cloudy. I continue to open both long and short positions in stories I like and will probably do more swing trades.
Positions:
Long: ALSWF ANH ANH-A BWLRF CMO-A DEEP DRYS FFHL GA GREXF MDNNF MLKKF MMG NRF ONAV QADMF QMAR SNEN XSI NFIYF SGTI
Short: GCI KBH MEG MNI TOL XLF MBI WM.
Options: long BQI Jan 2.5 call; short BQI Jan 5.0 call
Cash: 13.0%
Short Pct: 16.6%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: .
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: credit induced market downturn
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; credit woes.
Tech: ??
Japan: not invested – don’t care anymore.
China: up, 3.0; strong economy.
Silver: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. China, but stocks rising.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: progressing on website project and trying to do some economics as well.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer, biking, boxing. sleep decent.
Mood: calm, good
