Weekly Wrap 11/19 – 11/23/07

Summary:
I suppose I should be thankful the holiday week only had four trading days as my portfolio took another 4% hit.  This includes a slight upturn on Friday, my first gain in over a week.  Blame it all on Canada, its suddenly weaker dollar, its mining companies, and ALSWF :-) .  SNEN and ONAV continued to fall, though NRF had a small gain.  XSI continues to tank.

I continued to raise cash, reducing XSI (still don’t like their latest earnings), QADMF, MLKKF (base metals prices continue down), ALSWF (hope to buy back cheaper), and DEEP (this one probably dead until at least next earnings report).  I got rid of CHNG (will probably buy back but SNEN seem better valued), and HBMFF (base metals prices).  I sold short WM (Washington Mutual) and more of financial ETF XLF (continued financial crisis).  I added a little SNEN and NRF, both of which I feel are very undervalued.

My outlook is little changed from last week.  Well maybe Friday gave it a tinge more optimism, but basically I think were in for more trouble though I like my positions and will collect dividends until things sort themselves out.

Positions:
Long: ALSWF ANH ANH-A BWLRF CMO-A DEEP DRYS FFHL GA GREXF MDNNF MLKKF MMG NRF ONAV QADMF QMAR SNEN XSI NFIYF
Short: GCI KBH MEG MNI TOL XLF MBI WM.
Options: long BQI Jan 2.5 call; short BQI Jan 5.0 call
Cash: 18.6%
Short Pct: 15.1%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: XSI.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: credit induced market downturn
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; credit woes.
Tech: ??
Japan: not invested – don’t care anymore.
China: up, 3.0; strong economy.
Silver: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. China, but stocks rising.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: progressing on website project and trying to do some economics as well.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer, biking, boxing. sleep decent.
Mood: calm, good

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