Summary:
Took another pounding down about 7.5% for the week. My string of up weeks was broken at eight as I gave back about 6%. Weakness all around.
FFHL continued to implode on news their accountant quit because of their other troubles and they don’t have the funding to start one of their production lines which has had cost overruns. Luckily it was a small position. I sold all but a token amount. Still a chance they put their house in order but I’m not holding my breath. I got rid of my GMO and also cut back on XSI, CHNG, HBMFF and MLKKF. I added some NRF, SNEN, DRYS and started a position in NFYIF. I also sold short XLF, the select financial SPDR and MBI, the mortgage insurer. Mortgage mess motivation once again.
I don’t feel were out of this yet in either the short or long term. I have none of my optimism when we hit bottom in August though still have faith in my major positions. I will be having more income coming in to weather the storm, particularly from NRF, though its been falling by a dividend a day.
Positions:
Long: ALSWF ANH ANH-A BWLRF CHNG CMO-A DEEP DRYS FFHL GA GREXF HBMFF MDNNF MLKKF MMG NRF ONAV QADMF QMAR SNEN XSI NFIYF
Short: GCI KBH MEG MNI TOL XLF MBI.
Options: long BQI Jan 2.5 call; short BQI Jan 5.0 call
Cash: 10.0%
Short Pct: 13.0%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: FFHL, dry bulkers.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: credit induced market downturn
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-down, 2.0; credit woes.
Tech: ??
Japan: not invested – don’t care anymore.
China: up, 3.0; strong economy.
Silver: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. China, but stocks rising.
Zinc: flat, 2.0. Stocks stabilizing.
Real life: progressing on website project and trying to do some economics as well.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer, biking, boxing. sleep decent.
Mood: calm, good
