Summary:
Gained another 4% as my portfolio rose every day this week. ALSWF led the way, but tankers and oil stocks were strong, as were my Chinese investments particularly CHNG. If management estimates are to be believed, the valuation on this growth story is still quite cheap. Why would that be in an efficient market? Distrust of Chinese financial standards perhaps? A somewhat obscure business perhaps? Whatever the reason I think this may turn out very well.
I should also mention the loonie, i.e. the Canadian dollar, which crossed parity with the dollar for the first time that I remember at the end of September. Back on January 1st C$1 could get you $0.86. By Friday it got you $1.0015. Though that was down a big for the week, it has been a large positive for my portfolio, which between ALSWF and all those mining companies is almost 50% Canadian.
I closed my LEN short this week. Still think housing is going down but we seem to be in a short-term uptick. I added some ONAV on weakness and took some profits on ALSWF AND DRYS. I also sold sold HTE on speculation the dividend will fall. They kept their October dividend the same, but only declared for this month, not the whole quarter as they usually do, and mentioned they will have to re-evaluate.
With the August troubles still fresh in my mind, I think this rally still has a little ways to go.
Positions:
Long: HBMFF ALSWF FFHL XSI EXDUF GREXF MLKKF QADMF BWLRF DRYS DSX ONAV ERF HTE ANH ANH-A CHNG PRGN GMO MDNNF QMAR CMO-A MMG SMNPF
Short: GCI HLS MNI.
Options:
Cash: 9.5%
Short Pct: 4.7%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: nothing really.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: what me worry?
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; bailed by the Fed.
Tech: ??
Japan: flat-down, 1.0; political wobbles and subprime resonance.
China: up, 2.0; strong economy.
Silver: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: up, 2.0. China.
Zinc: up, 2.0. Declining stocks.
Real life: first week of school but not so busy since not taking classes. trying to work on the website project but the market has been very distracting.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer, biking, etc. Been going out alot. sleep fitful, lots of naps.
Mood: calm.
