Summary:
Bailed out by the Fed! I didn’t expect 50bp and I’m not sure it was the correct decision (a “Bernanke put” creates moral hazard for speculators — i.e. they take more risk thinking the Fed will come to the rescue when subprime type crises hit) .
Like everyone else I did well last week, ending the week up about 2.5%. Tuesday went from down to up. I should have had my finger on the triggers and bought things like ANH and AHR right after the announcement. A particularly savy poster did just that and is doing quite well.
Leary of a no-cut fall, I sold NRF, SEA, and some DRYS on Monday. I covered TOL after the announcement. Later in the week I got rid of MVO and SHERF (I want more return potential), and bought some more CHNG (has fallen and I like the valuation).
Positions:
Long: HBMFF ALSWF FFHL XSI EXDUF GREXF MLKKF QADMF SHERF MVO BWLRF DRYS DSX ONAV ERF HTE ANH ANH-A CHNG PRGN GMO QMAR CMO-A MMG SMNPF
Short: GCI HLS MNI LEN.
Options:
Cash: 7.1%
Short Pct: 6.1%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: fairly sanguine despite the carnage. World economy remains strong as do natural resource prices and tanker rates.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: a big bankruptcy in the financial system.
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat-up, 2.0; bailed by the Fed.
Tech: ??
Japan: flat-down, 1.0; political wobbles and subprime resonance.
China: up, 2.0; strong economy.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-up, 1.0. Strikes on the horizon.
Zinc: up, 2.0. Declining stocks.
Real life: very busy working on a paper on social networks.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer, biking, etc. Been going out alot.
Mood: calm.
