Summary:
Finally an up week. Tuesday gains covered Monday losses and gains the rest of the week pushed me up about 1%.
I added some GMO and MMG and covered YHOO. I also cut back ANH and sold AHR ahead of the Fed interest rate decision on Tuesday. I expect 25bp at most and possibly no cut. Bernanke is an academic and may be swayed less than the markets think. I was thinking no cut, but weak economic numbers, particularly the employment numbers, make a cut more likely. If he doesn’t cut, which is quite possible, the markets will tank. I will probably raise a little more cash before then.
Positions:
Long: HBMFF ALSWF FFHL XSI NTLRF EXDUF GREXF MLKKF QADMF SHERF MVO BWLRF SEA DRYS DSX ONAV ERF HTE ANH ANH-A CHNG PRGN GMO QMAR CMO-A MMG SMNPF
Short: GCI HLS MNI LEN TOL.
Options:
Cash: 5.0%
Short Pct: 7.2%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: fairly sanguine despite the carnage. World economy remains strong as do natural resource prices and tanker rates.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: if the Fed stays pat next week.
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: down, 2.0; rates are rising, Bear Stearn and subprime getting worse.
Tech: ??
Japan: flat-down, 1.0; political wobbles and subprime resonance.
China: up, 2.0; strong economy.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: up s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study, US$ weakness.
Copper: flat-up, 1.0. Strikes on the horizon.
Zinc: up, 2.0. Declining stocks.
Real life: back from a great trip in NYC and working on a paper on social networks.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer, biking, etc. Been going out alot.
Mood: calm.
