Summary:
Volatility dropped markedly in the first week back from summer. Is the trouble over? Somehow I don’t think so. More hedge funds will fall and the housing downturn has a long way to go. Luckily the world economy is still healthy which should limit any damage. Gold is heading up but base metals have fallen somewhat.
I was down slight for the week once again. I got hit on sell orders for NM and OKOFF, and bought more CHNG, and added a silver miner SMNPF, on a poster’s recommendation. I also sold my ESEA as I wanted to raise some cash.
Positions:
Long: HBMFF ALSWF FFHL XSI EXDUF GREXF MLKKF QADMF SHERF OKOFF ESEA MVO BWLRF SEA DRYS DSX ONAV ERF HTE ANH ANH-A CHNG PRGN GMO QMAR CMO-A AHR MMG SMNPF
Short: GCI HLS MNI YHOO LEN TOL.
Options:
Cash: 3.3%
Short Pct: 8.5%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: fairly sanguine despite the carnage. World economy remains strong as do natural resource prices and tanker rates.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: credit worries induced meltdown
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: down, 2.0; rates are rising, Bear Stearn and subprime getting worse.
Tech: ??
Japan: flat-down, 1.0; political wobbles and subprime resonance.
China: up, 1.0; strong economy.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study.
Copper: flat-up, 1.0. Strikes on the horizon.
Zinc: up, 2.0. Declining stocks.
Real life: In NYC for the week visiting my new nephew and friends..
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer, biking, etc. Been going out alot.
Mood: calm.
