Weekly Wrap 8/20 – 8/24/07

Summary:
V is for volatility. Counting intraday swings, my portfolio had not moved less than 3% for the 10 trading days to Wednesday. Most of those days the close was also greater than 3%.

This week saw five up days, with large gains from Monday to Wednesday and more subdued ones on Thursday and Friday. I am up about 2% over these last 2 volatile weeks though down for the month and about 9% from my mid-July high.

I added to MMG and CHNG, and followed a knowledgeable poster into AHR. Current yield is near 13% and they look as if they have liquidity and solid assets. Didn’t do much trading as have run out of cash. Should probably sell something but like most of my positions. Have sell orders out on NM and SHERF. Will probably reduce some FFHL in my taxable account as I can take a tax loss soon.

Positions:
Long: NXG HBMFF ALSWF FFHL XSI EXDUF GREXF MLKKF QADMF SHERF OKOFF ESEA MVO BWLRF SEA DRYS DSX ONAV ERF HTE ANH ANH-A CHNG NM PRGN QMAR CMO-A AHR
Short: GCI HLS MNI YHOO LEN TOL.
Options:
Cash: -0.5%
Short Pct: 8.7%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: fairly sanguine despite the carnage. World economy remains strong as do natural resource prices and tanker rates.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: rate rise induced meltdown
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: down, 2.0; rates are rising, Bear Stearn and subprime getting worse.
Tech: ??
Japan: flat-down, 1.0; political wobbles and subprime resonance.
China: up, 1.0; strong economy.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study.
Copper: flat-up, 1.0. Strikes on the horizon.
Zinc: up, 2.0. Declining stocks.
Real life: Working on summer schedule, but busy w/ a special project.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer, biking, swimming, etc. Sleeping somewhat irregular but sufficient
Mood: calm.

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