Summary:
My 3.3% gain Monday confirmed that I am an investment genius who has the guts to last out market fluctations. I did well on Friday too running up 5%. It was a pity about the 15% drop between Tuesday and Thursday. On Thursday morning I was probably down about 12% at one point, though thankfully I was asleep.
ALSWF reported good earnings and increased their sales guidance. They had previously said they expect 3 million subscribers by 2009 and raised that to 4 million. They reported a larger than expected net loss, but that is to be expected when their sales increase, since they book most of their expenses for sales up front but defer revenue. I bought as the stock initially headed north then lived to regret it as it got caught up in the carnage.
I bravely added some ANH and also bought some CMO-A, both back by recommendations of knowledgeable posters. Both these outfits hold agency-backed paper so should be safe. ANH has a problem at a subsidiary holding riskier mortgage paper, but a total write-off would still leave book above the current stock price.
To fund most of this I sold my remaining JEQ.
Friday was encouraging though didn’t totally erase the shell shock. The reversal leaves me optimistic for next week.
Positions:
Long: NXG HBMFF ALSWF FFHL XSI NTLRF EXDUF GREXF MLKKF QADMF SHERF OKOFF ESEA MVO BWLRF SEA DRYS DSX ONAV ERF HTE ANH ANH-A CHNG NM QMAR CMO-A
Short: GCI HLS MNI YHOO LEN TOL.
Options:
Cash: 2.9%
Short Pct: 9.7%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: fairly sanguine despite the carnage. World economy remains strong as do natural resource prices and tanker rates.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: rate rise induced meltdown
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: down, 2.0; rates are rising, Bear Stearn and subprime getting worse.
Tech: ??
Japan: flat-down, 1.0; political wobbles and subprime resonance.
China: up, 1.0; strong economy.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study.
Copper: flat-up, 1.0. Strikes on the horizon.
Zinc: up, 2.0. Declining stocks.
Real life: Working on summer schedule, but busy w/ a special project.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer, biking, swimming, etc. Sleeping somewhat irregular but sufficient
Mood: calm.
