Summary:
I will be moving to a weekly for a time as pressing other commitments are cutting into my blogging time.
The portfolio stabilized after the drubbing of last week and ended with about a 0.1% gain. I added some FFHL, ERF (higher oil prices and a rec from a knowledgeable poster), and BWLRF (also a rec and increased metal production).
I closed shorts in HBI and AMZN. The former reported better than expected earnings and that it is paying down debt. I’m kicking myself over the latter. AMZN will fall back to earth eventually, but I have been trying to avoid valuation shorts (i.e. companies which are running up beyond what I believe their fundamental value is), and trying to concentrate on companies with troubled businesses, like homebuilders. This was a lapse.
Overall a quiet week as I try to figure out which way things are going.
Positions:
Long: JEQ NXG HBMFF ALSWF FFHL XSI NTLRF EXDUF GREXF MLKKF QADMF SHERF OKOFF OCNF ESEA MVO BWLRF SEA DRYS DSX ERF
Short: GCI HLS MNI YHOO BSC LEN TOL.
Options:
Cash: 17.7%
Short Pct: 12.0%
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Positions most worried about: XSI, can’t get in touch w/ management.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: rate rise induced meltdown
Thinking about:
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: down, 2.0; rates are rising, Bear Stearn and subprime getting worse.
Tech: ??
Japan: flat-down, 1.0; political wobbles and subprime resonance.
China: flat-down, 1.0; bubbly and subprime spread.
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study.
Copper: flat-up, 1.0. Strikes on the horizon.
Zinc: up, 2.0. Declining stocks.
Real life: Working on summer schedule, but busy w/ a special project.
Weekly sleep and exercise: soccer, biking, swimming, etc. Sleeping somewhat irregular but sufficient
Mood: calm.
