Summary:
Up 0.5% today. ALSWF again drove results, though this time with some help from miners.
I did several trades. I sold some ONAV and DSX in my IRA. I am wary of a correction after a big run up. I will rebuy on weakness.
During the morining, I tried to close some of my AMZN short at 71.20. My rationale was to mentally uncommit myself to holding for the long term, a trick I recommend for all imperfectly rational traders. The stock, however, flew up to 73 and I missed. Then it started coming down fast and I decided that it was time to short more. I did so at 70.91. I interpret this pattern, a swift intraday retreat after a large runup, as a sure sign the stock has run out of momentum and will revert to fundamentals, i.e. its headed for a fall. This is a pattern I noticed when long NFI and which I didn’t heed to my regret. We’ll see if there is anything to it or if I’m just overinfering from past mistakes.
Finally, I took a postion in Quadra(QADMF), a gold, copper, molybdenum miner. The stock trades at 10.70 and reported 1Q EPS of $1.12. They have some hedges which held down results in past quarters (they seem to have written at least some of these off). They are near to being unhedged. Part of their strategy is to make acquisitions and they recently took over a molybdenum company.
Positions:
Long: JEQ AUY SLW NTO NXG HBMFF ALSWF JAGNF FFHL EGLE AOB XSI NTLRF NLY MDN.TO DSX ONAV ETEL GREXF MLKKF SEA OCNF TBSI TRA QADMF
Short: LEN GCI HBI HLS MNI AMZN YHOO
Options:
Cash: 15.9%
Short Pct: 16.0%
Trades: bought QADMF@10.89, reduced DSX@21.54, reduced ONAV@22.13, shorted more AMZN@70.91.
Read:
Stocks Researched: QADMF (see above)
Hours spent on market: 2.0
Positions most worried about: FFHL, reporting seems suspicious. Metals, due for a drop.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: metal meltdown.
Thinking about: shorting more. Adding MLKKF, EDVMF, ROY.
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 2.0;
Tech: ??
Japan: up, 1.0; strong GDP, but weak international markets
China: ??; price action, but getting bubbly.
Silver: flat-down s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand.
Gold: flat-down s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, GFMS study.
Copper: flat/down, 2.0. Stabilizing stocks.
Zinc: up, 2.0. Declining stocks.
Real life: Busy with studies.
Previous night sleep and exercise: 6.0 hrs; short mi bike ride Sunday.
Mood: Calm.
