Summary:
Finished up 1.3% today. Miners did well and EGLE and TNH were both up over 5%. The Chinese funds I sold yesterday, FXI and TDF , did well and are above where I dumped them.
Is that all there was to yesterday’s squall? I don’t think so, but its too early to tell. I’m staying cautious for now. What to do about China? Ed Yardeni was pretty sanguine in his morning report, noting that Shanghai is at 3 times its value in 2005, but that 2005 was an 8 year low. I’m trying to get better valuation information — at the very least a market PE. I thought I had found a site, but I don’t know where they get their data, and the PE they give for India is much lower than what the Economist recently reported. If anyone knows a good site, please let me know.
My only trade today was a small addition to TNH.
Positions:
Long: JEQ JSC LMC AUY SLW NTO NXG HBMFF ALSWF JAGNF FFHL EGLE AOB XSI KF UAHC FF NTLRF TNH LMGGF NM
Short: JCG BKC
Cash: 6.2%
Trades: added TNH@44.60
Read:
Stocks Researched:
Hours spent on market: 0.5
Positions most worried about:
Positions most sanguine about: Japan
Biggest market worries: about even between the risk of further down and that its over and will miss out if not fully invested (with only 6% cash I really shouldn’t worry about the latter).
Thinking about: Trimming and adding, selectively (I hope).
Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: up 1.0 ??
Tech: ??
Japan: up 3.5, good GDP
China: up 1.0 economic growth, tempered by volatility
Silver: up 2.5, industrial, china demand
Gold: up 2.5, dollar weakness, china demand, price action
Copper: ??
Zinc: up 3, low LME warehouse stocks
Real life: research progressing again, less worried about deadlines
Previous night sleep and exercise: 5 hrs, light exercise Sunday
Mood: calm.
