wpp

Posted on June 30, 2009 by

unprofitable

lots of debt

bad business to be in

not shortable but calls available

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Week Ending 1-23-09

Posted on January 24, 2009 by

Summary:
Was happy to break even in auguration week despite the averages being lower.  Bought a tad of NRF-B and some ONAV and closed my LEN short, while selling NRF.  I think we are still going down some more, but don’t get a strong sense.

Positions:
Long:  ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF  ONAV NRF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOT MEG TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short:  SHLD Feb 45.
Puts Short: NRF Jun 5.
Cash: 42.0%
Short Pct: 17.7% (24.3% of margin acct) 
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit and no guidance. 
Positions most sanguine about: 
Biggest market worries: the market :-) .
Thinking about: 

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 1.0; .
Tech: ??
China: ??; economy softening more than expected
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app.
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

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Week Ending 1-16-09

Posted on January 24, 2009 by

Summary:
Lost 2.0%, breaking a string of 5 weekly gains.  I dumped more NRF-B and CMO, and some ONAV, was assigned some NRF, and sold the Feb 45 SHLD call.  I expect a correction.  Cash is up to 40%.

Positions:
Long:  ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF  ONAV NRF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOT LEN MEG TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short:  SHLD Feb 45.
Puts Short: NRF Jun 5.
Cash: 34.3%
Short Pct: 20.0% (28.0% of margin acct) 
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit and no guidance. 
Positions most sanguine about: 
Biggest market worries: the market :-) .
Thinking about: 

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 1.0; .
Tech: ??
China: ??; economy softening more than expected
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app.
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

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Week Ending 1-9-2009

Posted on January 24, 2009 by

Summary:
Gained another 4.6% last week as financial such as NRF and CMO gained and my shorts performed well too.  I sold into strength dumping a bunch of NRF, and some NRF-B SGTI and SNEN.  I finally got out of the CFC-B for a small profit.  The poster’s convergence theory (to BAC-X as this is now a BAC obligation with the same yield as BAC-X) did not pan out.  I also shorted some LEN and added to ONAV.

Positions:
Long:  ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF  ONAV NRF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI HOT LEN MEG TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 34.3%
Short Pct: 21.4% (29.9% of margin acct) 
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit and no guidance. 
Positions most sanguine about: 
Biggest market worries: the market :-) .
Thinking about: 

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 1.0; .
Tech: ??
China: ??; economy softening more than expected
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

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Week Ending 1-3-08

Posted on January 24, 2009 by

Summary:
Gained 4.1% last week.  I lightened SNEN, CMO, and NRF-B.  I hope to swing trade the latter two.  I was in and out of GKK-A, which hit my stink bid when announcing the dividend would no longer be paid.  I sold as my purpose was the dividend.  I started a position in ONAV, an (oil) products tanker company.  The company has charters for most of this and next year, a 30% dividend yield and Jeffries came out with a bullish report expecting them to triple.  That said, the products market is a mess right now.  While the policy is to pay the current fixed dividend, things could change if charters come unstuck.

Positions:
Long:  ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF  ONAV NRF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP HOT GCI MEG TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 27.0%
Short Pct: 19.9% (27.5% of margin acct) 
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit and no guidance. 
Positions most sanguine about: 
Biggest market worries: the market :-) .
Thinking about: 

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 1.0; .
Tech: ??
China: ??; economy softening more than expected
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

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Week Ending 12-26-08

Posted on January 24, 2009 by

Summary:
Gained 1.4% in last full week of the year.  SNEN reported earnings above expectations, but most was from a one-time gain.  Besides that they were inline, but there was no reaffirmation of guidance like in October.  IR said they’ve decided not to issue guidance anymore which I find worrisome.  I’ll be cutting back and trying to get more info.

For the week I sold some SNEN and opened a short in Starwood (HOT), the hotel company, which has mountains of debt and falling profitability.

Positions:
Long:  ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF  NRF NRF-B SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP HOT GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short: NRF Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 24.6%
Short Pct: 21.8%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit. 
Positions most sanguine about: 
Biggest market worries: the market :-) .
Thinking about: 

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 1.0; .
Tech: ??
China: ??; economy softening more than expected
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

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Week Ending 12/19/08

Posted on December 20, 2008 by

Summary:
Managed a 1.8% gain last week.  It would have been more but I have been raising cash and my short position in anticipation of another dip.  It didn’t come this week, and I don’t know if it will come this week, but I think it will come.  When it does, I will reload more NRF-B, CMO and others I sold last week.

For this week I reduced NRF, swing traded CMO for a small gain, added to TOL and FAF shorts, and picked up some AGNC.  The latter is an agency MREIT which declared a divy of $1.20 and is yielding (based on that amount) 24%.  The divy may go higher and AGNC’s funding costs drop.

Positions:
Long:  ALSWF AGNC CFC-B GREXF MDNNF MEAOF NRF NRF-B RICK SGTI SNEN WHX.
Short: CRM GAP GCI MEG MNI TOL.
Calls Long: .
Calls Short: .
Puts Short:  Jan 5, Jun 5.
Cash: 23.4%
Short Pct: 20.5%
Read:

Stocks Researched:

Positions most worried about: SNEN – how hard will China slowdown hit.
Positions most sanguine about:
Biggest market worries: the market :-) .
Thinking about:

Outlook ( up-flat-down surety rating: 1-5 reasoning):
US: flat, 1.0; .
Tech: ??
China: ??; economy softening more than expected
Silver: flat s/t, 2.0, price action; l/t up, 1.0, industrial demand, but price rises.
Gold: who knows?
Copper: flat-down, 2.0. US demand falling.

Real life: fairly productive. designing a new Facebook app
Weekly sleep and exercise: injured again; playing soccer but not much else.
Mood: decent.

Posted in Weekly wrap | Leave a comment